note

Current public-DAV authority boundary — 2026-07-12. Pre-launch target design; nothing here proves a live system. A public-DAV consequence may occur only when at least two natural-person councilors bind the exact consequence in a complete valid bound PRISM decision receipt. PRISM records and verifies that receipt only; it never serves as council, signatory, authority, or receipt producer. AI and caste seats stage unsigned proposals only; they never authorize or execute a public-DAV consequence. Constitution or membership adoption establishes constitution and membership only; it does not authorize a later consequence. Policy may constrain an unsigned proposal but never authorizes execution or substitutes for the complete consequence-bound receipt. Before receipt validity, consequence fails closed to read-only proposal, simulation, or deterministic sandbox; live evidence remains gated_pending_complete_valid_bound_receipt. Software deterministically carries out only the exact consequence bound to a complete valid bound PRISM decision receipt from at least two natural-person councilors binding that exact consequence.

RealityFutures (COULD) — The Organism's Probabilistic Cortex

Domain: realityfutures.com | Three-Stage Process Stage: COULD (predict) | Topology: AXIOM (N:1 convergence)

Current position: RealityFutures is a later prediction layer, not a current opening commercial offer.

What RealityFutures Does

RealityFutures takes Circle's verified facts and converts them into probabilities. Not opinions. Not forecasts. Prices. Every claim about the future becomes a market. The market price IS the probability. Skin in the game replaces credentialism.

Current Evidence Note (2026-04-19)

• code-only register: P = 0.59
• contracts-plus-web-app lane is real in code
• Forge test lane passes
• organism-local proofs still rely on a statistical F2 fallback rather than live deployed market-backed emission

The Price IS the Probability

ReFu uses Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules (LMSR) — the same mechanism behind prediction markets that consistently outperform expert panels, polls, and institutional forecasts. LMSR provides:

• Infinite liquidity: The automated AMMs always offers a price. No order book needed.
• Bounded loss: The AMMs's maximum loss is known in advance (the liquidity parameter b).
• Information aggregation: Each trade moves the price toward the true probability. Traders who know more profit. Traders who don't, lose. The market learns.

When Circle publishes a signal — "OPEC to cut production Q3" with Watchman Score 0.78 — the intended ReFu path is to spin a market: "OPEC cuts production by >500K bbl/day in Q3 2026." The opening price reflects the Watchman Score. Traders then push it toward truth.

The Ensemble Engine

ReFu doesn't rely on markets alone. Behind each market, a model ensemble provides baseline forecasts:

• TimesFM: Google's foundation model for time-series forecasting (pretrained on 100B+ real-world time points)
• Chronos: Amazon's probabilistic time-series model (T5-based, zero-shot capable)
• Custom specialists: Domain-specific models trained on relevant historical data

The ensemble generates a prior probability. The market adjusts it. The final output is a ProbabilityBundle — a structured object containing the current market price, model ensemble estimate, confidence interval, volume, and time decay.

AXIOM: Truth from Money-Weighted Consensus

In the fully live market path, a resolved ReFu market becomes an AXIOM — a settled truth backed by money-weighted consensus. AXIOM is the N:1 convergence primitive: many predictions collapse into one verified outcome.

AXIOMs are stronger than Circle signals because they carry financial accountability. Someone paid for being wrong. Where live settlement is not yet present, this page should be read as intended COULD architecture rather than as blanket runtime proof.

AXIOMs may feed back into Circle's source-reputation model and into Agentz's decision context after a valid outcome receipt. This is target coupling, not a claim of live market settlement.

The F2 Interface

ReFu's external F2 output to Agentz is the canonical ForecastPacket. ProbabilityPacket remains a compatibility/concrete representation and RFContext remains internal. A valid forecast names:

• Market ID and question text
• Current LMSR price (= probability)
• Ensemble model estimate
• 95% confidence interval
• Market depth and volume
• Time to resolution
• Related AXIOM history

Agentz consumes valid forecasts to compile unsigned proposals. Missing probability or warrant yields UNKNOWN/HOLD, never 0.5. ReFu never recommends, authorizes, or executes; it only prices possibilities.

Revenue Model

• Trading spread: Built into LMSR liquidity parameter
• Market creation fees: Paid by entities requesting custom markets
• Data licensing: ProbabilityBundles sold as API feeds to institutional clients
• AXIOM archive: Historical resolved markets as structured datasets

Architecture

• Frontend: Next.js
• Contracts: 18 Solidity contracts (Foundry), migrating to Hedera native services
• AMMs: LMSR engine (contract lane exists; live deployment is a separate proof question)
• LP-100: 100 equity tokens per market pool, conservation enforced (total always = 100)
• Settlement: Target path: on-chain or externally anchored resolution with oracle verification

This page describes the intended COULD architecture. Treat live deployed market claims separately unless a dated runtime/public proof is cited.

ReFu does not observe. ReFu does not decide. ReFu does not execute. ReFu prices.

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Implementation Notes

• This page is maintained as part of the Skyzai wiki extraction pass.
• Claims should remain aligned with canonical source files and evidence tiers.
• Operational use should distinguish between constitutional invariants and derived heuristics.

Validation Checks

1. Definitions are internally consistent with adjacent sections.
2. Any quantitative claim is paired with context and measurement window.
3. Cross-links to related pages remain valid after edits.
4. Status-oriented language reflects current verifiable state.

Related pages

• 31-circle.md
• 30-trivium-overview.md
• 33-apu.md

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Agent Execution Surface

If you are an AI agent reading this document:

1. This is a downstream public content page. The canonical source lives in EMERGENTISM_ORG/08_FRAMEWORK_SUPPORT/ or SKYZAI_ORG/. Edit source upstream, not here.
2. Preserve evidence tiers. Do not promote claims up the [C] < [D] < [S] < [B] < [E] ladder when reproducing them here; [I]/[A] qualifiers never substitute for [B]/[E].
3. Regenerate from source. If the upstream source changes, regenerate this page rather than editing it independently.
4. Canonical Path: SKYZAI_ORG/07_PWAs/skyzai_org/wiki/32-realityfutures.md

Output: This is content. Route edits to upstream source. Regenerate when source changes.

K3 public-DAV authority history — 2026-07-12

K3 historical reference — not active authority

note

Current public-DAV boundary — 2026-07-10. Pre-launch target design; nothing here is live. The active DAV is public and targets PRISM, with no K2 runtime, launch, genesis/bootstrap, or fallback dependency. Consequential authority requires at least two natural-person councilors; AI/caste seats stage unsigned proposals only. Before quorum, behavior fails closed to read-only/proposal, simulation, or deterministic sandbox, and a live decision receipt remains gated pending quorum.